Searles Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS65 KVEF 050454
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
954 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers, thunderstorms, and much cooler than normal
temperatures will persist through Monday for much of the area as a
strong storm system continues to impact the area. Beyond Monday,
we will see a drying and warming trend through the next week,
with temperatures well above normal by the end of the week.
&&


.UPDATE...In general, the HRRR performed well today regarding the
location of convection, but the intensity was overdone, compared to
what came to fruition. Anomalous moisture in the region allowed for
rain rates across south-central Mohave and San Bernardino counties
to peak between 0.25 and 0.35 inches per 15 minutes at times.
Earlier in the afternoon, storm motion was quick enough that flash
flooding was not expected. However, as the afternoon progressed -
particularly across our southern zones that are closer to the center
of the low - storm movement halted to 5 mph or slower, which
resulted in flash flooding along State Route 62 in southeastern San
Bernardino as well as along local roads west of Barstow. Forecast
HRRR reflectivity continues to highlight Inyo County for late-
afternoon into early-evening convection. The RAP is highlighting a
region of increased instability in southern Inyo County and northern
San Bernardino County over the next couple of hours with between 500
and 1000 J/kg of CAPE and 25-30 kts of bulk shear across an area
that has between 0.70 and 0.80 inches of untapped PWAT. This will be
our area of focus over the next few hours, as overall activity wanes
(but does not completely dissolve) overnight. Expect a return of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Monday, with a focus
across Mohave, Clark, and San Bernardino counties. No changes made
to the forecast this evening.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...449 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025/


.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night.

The strong storm system, currently centered just south of Lake
Havasu City, continues to bring convective activity to much of the
region. In areas where clearing is occurring, mainly Mohave County,
we are seeing storms form in an increasingly unstable environment,
with CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range through early evening.
Storms will diminish in coverage and intensity after sunset.
However, dynamic forcing will be enough to keep scattered shower
activity going through the night in many areas. Convective activity
increases again Monday around sunrise for Clark and Lincoln counties
as well as the Colorado River and Mohave County. Much cooler than
normal temperatures will be the norm for today and tomorrow as we
reside on the cool side of the trough. Temperatures will run 10-15
degrees below-normal through Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

A period of quieter weather begins Tuesday as the strong trough of
low pressure that brought us all of the active weather these past few
days moves off to the east. A few showers could linger on Tuesday in
Mohave County. Subsequently, a building ridge will slingshot our
temperatures from well below normal to well above normal by the end
of the week. Ensembles are in remarkable agreement on temperatures
in Las Vegas reaching the mid-upper 90s by Saturday with a 10%
chance of reaching 100. No significant winds or precipitation are
expected beyond Tuesday.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Dry
conditions are expected overnight through early tomorrow morning
before the threat of showers and thunderstorms moves back into the
valley.  A few showers will be possible after 15Z, but a better
chance of showers and storms is expected between 19Z and 00Z.  A few
showers may also linger into the evening.  Prevailing winds through
the TAF period should remain less than 10 knots, although a few
higher gusts will be possible in any storms tomorrow afternoon.
Skies will fill back in overnight and are expected to be BKN to OVC
through the day tomorrow with bases falling to 5kft to 7kft by mid-
morning.  CIGs could fall below 5kft tomorrow afternoon in and near
thunderstorm activity.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...The Las Vegas area TAF
site will see conditions similar to those described above for Harry
Reid, except the precipitation in the late morning may affect KVGT
beginning around 18Z.  Elsewhere, winds at KBIH will be northerly
with intermittent gustiness through tomorrow evening.  At KDAG,
gusty winds will persist through tonight before decreasing tomorrow
morning and afternoon.  Winds will increase out of the west once
again tomorrow evening. In the Lower Colorado River Valley, a few
showers are possible during the morning, before a more pronounced
area of showers and storms potentially moves through during the
afternoon and early evening.  Most areas will see skies BKN to OVC
through the TAF period with bases remaining 8kft to 10kft through
tonight, falling to 5kft to 8kft tomorrow.  The exception is in the
Owens Valley, including KBIH, where CIGs should begin to lift
tomorrow afternoon and scatter out by the evening. &&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Soulat
DISCUSSION...Berc
AVIATION...Planz

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